South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb53d3b4ce3b1d09aa71c8275efb353ae3161a071900c5ff094b2ab54044e028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,895$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.15 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 902.77$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 31c | 635.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 37c | 537.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 506.2$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 58c | 430.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 40c | 395$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Over | 35c | 337.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 62c | 329.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 59c | 327$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 255$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 172.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 26c | 115.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 112.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 61c | 90.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a5fbbacked Under | 79c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 84.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 39c | 56.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9447backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…5fc5backed Over | 24c | 42.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 68c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.