Tennis · resolved market
Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8d852c4860ac805309e98b68ae7772f3ad36be41d2138a3b2b13d1293a26ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 808.38$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.98 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 625.94$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…7e3abacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 439.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 291.24$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 260.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1ec9backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 219.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 217.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…2c27backed Over 2.5 | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 83.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…0678backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 62.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 60.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…8341backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 50.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Over 2.5 | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)Sinner won
- Zverev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Zverev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Zverev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Zverev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.