MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8e8c05fbca1857342a66d16fa2a104b7b352919ce8746f3c1791c4680c1b83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 25c | 5,927$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.33 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 5,196$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 551$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.61 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers | 76c | 290$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Houston Astros | 27c | 183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 23c | 139$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 25c | 119.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros | 19c | 119.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Houston Astros | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 35c | 58.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 38.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 37.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Houston Astros | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…8b7ebacked Texas Rangers | 76c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.