TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,620 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros17c2,831$475 inLost-$475.336,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers68c2,385$1,613 inWon+$771.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Texas Rangers62c2,298$1,421 inWon+$876.912,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros29c2,031$597 inLost-$597.55,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros33c1,448$480 inLost-$480.028,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros21c1,220$254 inLost-$253.559,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros16c937$150 inLost-$149.921,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Houston Astros34c923.83$310 inLost-$310.0888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers71c865$611 inWon+$253.754,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers66c858$571 inWon+$287.458,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Houston Astros25c655$166 inLost-$166.336440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Houston Astros25c415.13$104 inLost-$103.7812128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Houston Astros40c414.49$166 inLost-$1662,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…847abacked Texas Rangers65c307.69$200 inWon+$107.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Houston Astros17c184.79$32 inLost-$31.8566056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers74c184.05$136 inWon+$48.523,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Houston Astros10c180.36$18 inLost-$17.9511346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Houston Astros23c173$40 inLost-$39.7999624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Houston Astros21c167.75$35 inLost-$35.449752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Texas Rangers57c161.11$92 inWon+$69.281,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros59c159.78$95 inLost-$94.5412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros16c157.91$25 inLost-$25.272,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros45c154.7$69 inLost-$69.441,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros20c142.58$29 inLost-$29.011,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros28c123.68$35 inLost-$34.634,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros28c70$20 inLost-$19.668942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Texas Rangers74c67.04$50 inWon+$17.4310864.8%70 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f5…42cabacked Texas Rangers80c62.5$50 inWon+$12.55565.5%36 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros28c53$15 inLost-$14.865,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros33c50$17 inLost-$16.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Texas Rangers26c49$13 inWon+$36.261,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers54c48.5$26 inWon+$22.355,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Texas Rangers56c42.85$24 inWon+$18.8559549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a8…8a98backed Texas Rangers58c25.4$15 inWon+$10.584546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4d…ac86backed Houston Astros59c19.38$11 inLost-$11.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.