Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfab2749a13dcba71207bc3e453511598f34a1c5173649b919dac1e3a78e686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 5,759$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.28 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 63c | 4,733$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.38 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 1,734$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.13 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 46c | 1,281$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…5838backed Yes | 25c | 826.85$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 20c | 737.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 645.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.84 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 23c | 503.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 48c | 398$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 26c | 258$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 62c | 252.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 17c | 194.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 152.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…8e99backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Yes | 27c | 127.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 72c | 106.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 22c | 78.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…8ebcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…0be4backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
- Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.