Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Poland vs Israel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec129161447c6a746a42410f861a5c0db6351a23387dd84f5236701d0b166e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Polandof Poland, Israel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Israel | 51c | 2,433$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Poland | 44c | 1,801$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Poland | 47c | 1,303$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Israel | 57c | 884.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Israel | 37c | 878.9$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Poland | 56c | 538.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Poland | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Israel | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Israel | 50c | 482.56$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Poland | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Poland | 65c | 404.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Israel | 43c | 348.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Poland | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Israel | 57c | 229.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Israel | 47c | 207.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Israel | 54c | 178.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…7f93backed Israel | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Poland | 66c | 170.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…cd42backed Israel | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed Poland | 46c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…212fbacked Poland | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Israel | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Poland | 47c | 56.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Poland | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Poland | 42c | 49.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Israel | 54c | 49.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Israel | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Poland | 46c | 43.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Israel | 56c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Israel | 56c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Poland | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…3684backed Poland | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Israel | 56c | 24.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…1431backed Israel | 56c | 23.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Poland | 68c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Israel | 52c | 21.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.