Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec275ae16a7243aec9f069fb0adc970e1c2533e22aa9e7fac3ae82fa606fbe7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aguilarof Michelsen, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Aguilar | 53c | 2,073$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.33 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Michelsen | 47c | 1,160$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.09 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Michelsen | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Michelsen | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…9358backed Michelsen | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Aguilar | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Michelsen | 49c | 204.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Michelsen | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Michelsen | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Aguilar | 51c | 149.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Michelsen | 49c | 100.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Aguilar | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Aguilar | 46c | 73.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Aguilar | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Aguilar | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Michelsen | 47c | 53.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Aguilar | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Aguilar | 51c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Aguilar | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Aguilar | 52c | 27.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Aguilar | 54c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Aguilar | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)this page
- Aguilar vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex MichelsenDaniel Merida Aguilar won
- Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs MichelsenAguilar won
- Set 2 Winner: Aguilar vs MichelsenMichelsen won
- Set Handicap: Aguilar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.