TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef62…b736backed Over48c6,000$2,880 inLost-$2,880825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x306f…3393backed Under52c6,000$3,120 inWon+$2,880862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Over48c2,324$1,111 inLost-$1,11117441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Over48c2,070$1,000 inLost-$1,00012147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c1,834$956 inWon+$878.129,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under55c667.74$366 inWon+$302.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under57c614.89$350 inWon+$264.41,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under51c430.02$219 inWon+$210.711,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under55c300$165 inWon+$13540952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over46c180$83 inLost-$82.561,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Under56c178.25$100 inWon+$78.4318954.5%103 W · 86 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6264…faa6backed Under59c169.49$100 inWon+$69.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+120.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeabb…0cf6backed Under59c169.49$100 inWon+$69.491650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e00…028ebacked Over42c109$46 inLost-$45.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd87…decabacked Under59c101.69$60 inWon+$41.691963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+58.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under55c90$50 inWon+$40.538347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…3f14backed Under55c75$41 inWon+$33.758347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d46…fa33backed Over43c70.47$30 inLost-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over45c54.41$24 inLost-$24.4810234.3%35 W · 67 L-12.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.3613946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a81…b783backed Under55c36.32$20 inWon+$16.344032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5373…e46bbacked Under55c28.95$16 inWon+$13.038744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over45c26.36$12 inLost-$11.862,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7597…a162backed Over47c26.19$12 inLost-$12.31825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.