NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1f37b260c09df9e0ca2de5249a562982ccc67f3eee252e72438cecf13351ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 57c | 17,000$9,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,311.24 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 9,620$5,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,334.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 6,475$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.12 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 2,775$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 54c | 1,946$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.22 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 43c | 1,612$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.1 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Over | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 43c | 375$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 54c | 331$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 259.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 43c | 50.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5this page
- Bucks vs. PacersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.