NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ae0b7e79c28301791eb8522bc959897b2bba22b7d753f13d6841fcc06e65d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Pacers | 51c | 69,389$35,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,688.18 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bucks | 51c | 20,475$10,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,037.51 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 48c | 20,318$9,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,565.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Pacers | 49c | 15,242$7,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,468.82 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 50c | 9,098$4,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…7cf1backed Bucks | 49c | 8,667$4,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420.06 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 49c | 7,798$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 49c | 6,532$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,331.32 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pacers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Pacers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Bucks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.95 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucks | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Pacers | 49c | 2,606$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.94 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Pacers | 51c | 2,372$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.72 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Pacers | 51c | 2,178$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.77 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Pacers | 51c | 2,155$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.05 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…bce1backed Pacers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…30c8backed Bucks | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 50c | 1,996$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Pacers | 51c | 1,962$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 49c | 1,962$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.37 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pacers | 50c | 1,862$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Pacers | 49c | 1,735$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Pacers | 49c | 1,504$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.2 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bucks | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bucks | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Bucks | 51c | 1,498$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.21 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 48c | 1,167$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 51c | 1,057$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.46 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Bucks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Pacers | 50c | 731.88$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pacers | 51c | 518.58$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 49c | 493$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Bucks | 52c | 445.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…531bbacked Bucks | 51c | 325.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Bucks | 51c | 306$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…593bbacked Bucks | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Bucks | 51c | 213.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pacers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Pacers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Bucks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Bucks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 89 | 70.8%63 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Bucks | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Pacers | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pacers | 32c | 155.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 49c | 151$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Bucks | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Pacers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Bucks | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Pacers | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pacers | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pacers | 49c | 78.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…fe4dbacked Pacers | 50c | 58.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks | 70c | 56.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Pacers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Bucks | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bucks | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pacers | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Bucks | 52c | 36.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…cf16backed Pacers | 49c | 30.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Pacers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)this page
- Bucks vs. PacersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.