NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42dfb8a75278e4455825162285b97883418631f85cd05365b726681b8fa38b5

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $104,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $107,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,675 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf42…d698backed Under	55c	55,615$30,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,263.98	170	31.8%54 W · 116 L	-24.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	52c	16,392$8,524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,867.93	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	47c	15,904$7,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,475	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	47c	12,500$5,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,850	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	46c	11,798$5,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,370.58	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Over	53c	9,442$5,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,001.57	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	47c	6,263$2,922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,922.42	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Over	46c	4,444$2,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,044.24	174	41.4%72 W · 102 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Over	50c	4,127$2,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,063.25	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	50c	2,739$1,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,369.5	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	45c	2,667$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	46c	2,385$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.47	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over	50c	2,248$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124	175	54.9%96 W · 79 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Under	49c	2,100$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Under	49c	2,100$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa75d…1246backed Over	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa817…6313backed Under	49c	2,100$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd234…90b0backed Over	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa93d…db7dbacked Over	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.7wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over	48c	2,030$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.21	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	46c	1,200$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Under	52c	1,058$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.69	157	56.7%89 W · 68 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	52c	1,037$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.08	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	46c	966$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.11	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Over	45c	888$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.6	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Over	45c	824.44$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	47c	596$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.12	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	47c	510.64$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.64	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	50c	431$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.5	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	45c	400$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	45c	342.07$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.58	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	48c	299.99$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Over	48c	208.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	50c	198.04$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.04	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	48c	195$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	56c	183.93$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.93	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	51c	160.65$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.74	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over	48c	143.75$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Over	51c	137.25$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	45c	133.33$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x705e…c57dbacked Over	47c	126.74$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.57	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70af…bcf2backed Over	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over	48c	102.5$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-12.7wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Over	49c	99.2$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.61	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1488…9483backed Over	45c	55.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	36.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Over	46c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	45c	23.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	306	16.7%51 W · 255 L	-36.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event