Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec56d30e9cd4dd5c6e04f443718eabdbdf1a3b217c61d0c49eb696c76c74840c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 2c | 988.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 744.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 263.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 228.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 208.62$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 190.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 157.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 131.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 127.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 119.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 9c | 118$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 112.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 101.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 98.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 17c | 89.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 82.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 82.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 79.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 75c | 69.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 79c | 60.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 52.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 51.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 79c | 50.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 21c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 37.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 78c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.