Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb24048672cacce154a21d45c44134ee592232a2f8cfb5b87173ebada51fc1b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 2c | 749.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 746.34$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 417.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 4c | 413.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 381.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 6c | 336.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 333.89$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 42c | 295.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.24 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 16c | 258.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 15c | 244.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 213.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 211.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 172.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 11c | 156.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 80c | 153.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 11c | 152.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 136$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 15c | 105.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 59c | 104.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 23c | 98.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 98.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 39c | 85.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 85.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 77.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 26c | 77.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 65c | 77.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 71.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 74c | 66.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 63.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 61.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 58.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 70c | 56.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 56.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 54.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 51.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 21c | 50.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 50.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 48.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 47.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 46.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 43.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 38c | 27.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 70c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c27…b565backed Yes | 63c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 18.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.