Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec77ca2766e0e74b33f4d906043f1085451640690954782bcc3686e01c327f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 67c | 7,314$4,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.71 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 2,288$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.35 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 1,838$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.44 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 68c | 1,058$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.43 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88b…976cbacked Under | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 477$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 70c | 430.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 318.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 32c | 238.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 198$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 29c | 187.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 32c | 155.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 32c | 149.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 77c | 133.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 33c | 121.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Under | 32c | 116.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 19c | 86.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 32c | 72.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 64.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 31c | 64.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 32c | 56.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 32c | 55.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 31c | 47.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 46.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 32c | 46.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 31c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 31c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 31c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 31c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 32c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 67c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 68c | 28.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed Over | 69c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.