TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Over47c71,308$33,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,691.019649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under53c32,479$17,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,198.4923858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under50c8,732$4,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3544852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under52c5,448$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under53c3,753$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9894751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Under52c3,238$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.724656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over50c3,158$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.4147748.2%230 W · 247 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under53c2,418$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.382934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa0e…718cbacked Under53c2,290$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Under52c2,232$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.431729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c2,142$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.593,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under53c1,702$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.4577751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under53c1,618$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.7819560%117 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under55c1,615$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.2299340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Under53c1,528$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over54c1,433$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9439567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5308547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under52c961$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7221547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under53c721.7$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.59854.1%53 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under53c613.49$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.959458.5%55 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under30c571$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2658043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under53c555$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.155851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under53c537.24$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.445856.9%33 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under53c524.24$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6614151.8%73 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under50c479.94$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4678344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x838d…3cbdbacked Over68c437.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.971533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over46c336.51$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7270249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under53c308$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.245056%28 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Over47c302.13$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under52c301.89$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Under57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17111441.2%47 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1719652.1%50 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18e8…0f39backed Under53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc72d…fc21backed Under53c265.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.974062.5%25 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over46c255.12$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1172850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under53c248$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4413948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under54c231$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7468550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under54c231$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7491553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c227$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5855750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…2075backed Under53c212$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.36540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3310250%51 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over42c205.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6587154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Under55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under55c182.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1710755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9924351.4%125 W · 118 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under41c175.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.031,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over44c160.4$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3629460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over48c160.27$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3448344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over26c157.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.920554.6%112 W · 93 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under53c150.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7590%0 W · 9 L-4.9wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Under53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over45c149.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0631158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under53c144$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3212849.2%63 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over59c128$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.277245.8%33 W · 39 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over65c125.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0613844.9%62 W · 76 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320641.3%85 W · 121 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under53c94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.828942.7%38 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over43c91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.74740.4%19 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over52c90.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1996756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under16c87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7128721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Under53c84.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.994047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Over67c79.29$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0119073.7%140 W · 50 L+18.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Over51c78.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under54c75.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9612254.1%66 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Under54c73.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under54c72.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54959.2%29 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under45c72.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0382044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x659f…04e4backed Under52c61.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.392544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under55c58.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.245160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under55c57.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1624859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Over44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.823339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under55c56.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1819255.2%106 W · 86 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over51c53.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.329250%46 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under53c52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8119052.1%99 W · 91 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under56c50.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.164959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Under53c50.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2439234.4%135 W · 257 L-47.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under53c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.545950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.455431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under53c44.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.839245.7%42 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over46c43.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.078465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under54c42.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.076958%40 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Under56c41.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under56c41.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.46358.7%37 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under56c41.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.419056.3%107 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over51c41.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.187955.7%44 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.228950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Under53c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.145633.9%19 W · 37 L-9.8wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1872…bcabbacked Under53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Under54c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.986264.5%40 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb5…b700backed Under53c33.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under56c33.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.786752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9097…4d80backed Under54c32.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…a78fbacked Over47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.914669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+57.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over51c31.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5422263.1%140 W · 82 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Under53c31.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55255.8%29 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8de…ddd2backed Over48c30.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.