TailMyPicks
Market

Mls · resolved market

Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Jose Earthquakesof San Jose Earthquakes, Sporting Kansas City
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Sporting Kansas City64c74,447$47,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,713.413053.1%69 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f9…87b0backed San Jose Earthquakes37c56,910$20,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,116.19649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed San Jose Earthquakes35c48,782$17,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,738.6515647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sporting Kansas City65c24,847$16,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,123.6523858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed San Jose Earthquakes35c7,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8751457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed San Jose Earthquakes35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Sporting Kansas City63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1501338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9b3…468cbacked Sporting Kansas City64c4,031$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked San Jose Earthquakes35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.142751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City68c2,677$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.33,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sporting Kansas City65c2,427$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.1397146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Sporting Kansas City66c1,085$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.6447748.2%230 W · 247 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Sporting Kansas City65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65055750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Sporting Kansas City65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65068550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sporting Kansas City65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65091553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sporting Kansas City70c592.47$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.0278344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed San Jose Earthquakes36c562.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.154740.4%19 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Sporting Kansas City65c541.25$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.568041.3%33 W · 47 L-11.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Sporting Kansas City65c516.57$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.610655.7%59 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sporting Kansas City44c451.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2158043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe2…2c56backed San Jose Earthquakes35c445.86$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+47.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed San Jose Earthquakes21c433$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.9239567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Sporting Kansas City64c422.22$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4219560%117 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Sporting Kansas City66c344.32$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5122263.1%140 W · 82 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked San Jose Earthquakes35c342.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked San Jose Earthquakes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2710853.7%58 W · 50 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Sporting Kansas City65c221.49$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9710755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed San Jose Earthquakes24c197$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.729652.1%50 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Sporting Kansas City76c197$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7210353.4%55 W · 48 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Sporting Kansas City65c168$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Sporting Kansas City66c152.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.996358.7%37 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Sporting Kansas City66c152.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…18d6backed Sporting Kansas City66c151.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Sporting Kansas City65c143.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.919052.1%99 W · 91 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Sporting Kansas City64c140.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.479458.5%55 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Sporting Kansas City64c140.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.475856.9%33 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Sporting Kansas City66c136.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.89250%46 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Sporting Kansas City63c120$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.62450%12 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed San Jose Earthquakes22c120$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5225934.4%89 W · 170 L-28.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Sporting Kansas City69c118.49$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sporting Kansas City65c105.82$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3612254.1%66 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Sporting Kansas City65c105.67$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8282044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Sporting Kansas City64c98.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2414151.8%73 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Sporting Kansas City65c96.48$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9419255.2%106 W · 86 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed San Jose Earthquakes21c96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8496756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Sporting Kansas City64c93.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Sporting Kansas City64c90.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1424859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Sporting Kansas City65c81.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1215458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sporting Kansas City65c79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.031,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Sporting Kansas City63c79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.778942.7%38 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73d6…09edbacked Sporting Kansas City64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick69cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked San Jose Earthquakes42c77.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.131752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked San Jose Earthquakes34c75.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f04…4e5fbacked Sporting Kansas City64c70.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4590%0 W · 9 L-4.9wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Sporting Kansas City64c65.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.75250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Sporting Kansas City66c64.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.44959.2%29 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Sporting Kansas City64c63.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.969452.1%49 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked San Jose Earthquakes30c61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.425928.8%17 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Sporting Kansas City64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46264.5%40 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Sporting Kansas City70c58.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414660.9%28 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked Sporting Kansas City69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Sporting Kansas City64c46.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.236752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Sporting Kansas City64c46.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.994047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Sporting Kansas City66c45.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sporting Kansas City28c43.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3492346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Sporting Kansas City65c40.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.322263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Sporting Kansas City64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255757.9%33 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed San Jose Earthquakes35c38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Sporting Kansas City65c35.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0312254.9%67 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Sporting Kansas City65c35.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.916454.7%35 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x659f…04e4backed Sporting Kansas City65c35.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.912544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Sporting Kansas City63c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.165633.9%19 W · 37 L-9.8wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1c43…1608backed Sporting Kansas City64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Sporting Kansas City65c30.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.722254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c2…080bbacked Sporting Kansas City63c28.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec27…ba0fbacked Sporting Kansas City67c26.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Sporting Kansas City65c22.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…38bfbacked Sporting Kansas City66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Sporting Kansas City66c22.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156847.1%32 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Sporting Kansas City64c18.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked San Jose Earthquakes64c17.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3430957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Sporting Kansas City64c16.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.723345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Sporting Kansas City63c16.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.553060%18 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Sporting Kansas City64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae02…7ed0backed Sporting Kansas City64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.