Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8a704e57ffd4f693450787fe321ce74f83a5e52041ab5cc5706d45256bcaed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Liquid, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Aurora | 77c | 1,987$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Team Liquid | 18c | 1,012$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…96eabacked Aurora | 79c | 812.28$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…413fbacked Team Liquid | 35c | 808.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 700$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Team Liquid | 27c | 553.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Team Liquid | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Team Liquid | 15c | 449.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 52c | 405.65$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 70c | 381.96$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Aurora | 47c | 370.46$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…811ebacked Team Liquid | 15c | 367$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…1ab1backed Team Liquid | 28c | 359.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Team Liquid | 21c | 330.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 48c | 302.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.83 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Aurora | 49c | 288$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…30c9backed Team Liquid | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Team Liquid | 56c | 168$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Team Liquid | 26c | 158$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid | 24c | 148.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Aurora | 73c | 123.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 50c | 120.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…41ebbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid | 51c | 104.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Aurora | 49c | 102.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Team Liquid | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Aurora | 45c | 99.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Aurora | 51c | 97.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 70c | 93.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 49c | 90.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Team Liquid | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 74c | 76.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Team Liquid | 22c | 75.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…615fbacked Team Liquid | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Aurora | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…a5fbbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed Team Liquid | 51c | 58.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Liquid | 18c | 57.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce8d…7a59backed Team Liquid | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Team Liquid | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Liquid | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Team Liquid | 51c | 49.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Team Liquid | 40c | 47.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Aurora | 48c | 37.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid | 51c | 36.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Aurora | 77c | 35.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Aurora | 45c | 30.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Team Liquid | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…a35cbacked Aurora | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…ef80backed Aurora | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…3b84backed Aurora | 79c | 16.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…e362backed Aurora | 72c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.