Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec9d4aaef68b408087c1248fb1c462ec65a9c848eba84c584695a5e852c74b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 56c | 1,509$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.04 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,354$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.62 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 583.13$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.65 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 39c | 435.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 247.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 113.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 97.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 90.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed Over | 46c | 80.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 250 | 49.6%124 W · 126 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 27c | 55.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…1e2fbacked Under | 75c | 48.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…ea2fbacked Over | 25c | 48.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed Under | 75c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…34a4backed Under | 75c | 23.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.