Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f58df302598d04310fe998ec1885bdb5fac78c37257400c081863d5c2580c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 73c | 2,740$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.8 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 2,347$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.9 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 74c | 1,746$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.19 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 2c | 985.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 27c | 766.15$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.86 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 565.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 74c | 499.14$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 26c | 271$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 268.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 161.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 151.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 86.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 83.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.