Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedca6f801fed3117c5eef58e7f5b0db2e099392c6b4ea9246709d7f6efce8ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 48c | 1,538$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.76 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 49c | 1,327$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.53 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +12.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 52c | 745.42$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 19c | 556.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 433.66$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 26c | 301.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 268$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 47c | 204.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 351 | 57.8%203 W · 148 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 77c | 70.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 254 | 56.3%143 W · 111 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 383 | 58.2%223 W · 160 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Over | 50c | 43.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Under | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-2.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.