Tennis · resolved market
Plovdiv: Mathys Erhard vs Inaki Montes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca2e3199960d6d6f61c2b4e16a3c9334f217abd4c41380b3965dcac9e6300d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inaki Montesof Mathys Erhard, Inaki Montes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fc3…b676backed Mathys Erhard | 42c | 5,519$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…698dbacked Inaki Montes | 65c | 4,545$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.88 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Inaki Montes | 60c | 3,621$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.02 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Mathys Erhard | 80c | 3,543$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Mathys Erhard | 18c | 2,330$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Inaki Montes | 60c | 2,160$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.09 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mathys Erhard | 10c | 2,089$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.96 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mathys Erhard | 30c | 1,449$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.68 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Mathys Erhard | 23c | 1,304$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.49 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Inaki Montes | 46c | 713.02$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.36 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Inaki Montes | 41c | 684.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.85 | 873 | 37.1%324 W · 549 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mathys Erhard | 65c | 633.57$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.75 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Inaki Montes | 36c | 418.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…664ebacked Mathys Erhard | 70c | 413.04$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Mathys Erhard | 9c | 395.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Inaki Montes | 53c | 303.37$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Inaki Montes | 58c | 269.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Inaki Montes | 36c | 257.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Inaki Montes | 37c | 256$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Mathys Erhard | 13c | 224.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Inaki Montes | 39c | 200.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Inaki Montes | 49c | 191.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Mathys Erhard | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Inaki Montes | 43c | 144.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 283 | 48.1%136 W · 147 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Inaki Montes | 21c | 141.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Inaki Montes | 53c | 133.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Mathys Erhard | 80c | 126.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…e64abacked Mathys Erhard | 8c | 125.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Inaki Montes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Mathys Erhard | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mathys Erhard | 27c | 96.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Inaki Montes | 63c | 90.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Inaki Montes | 72c | 82.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Mathys Erhard | 28c | 82.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed Inaki Montes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Mathys Erhard | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Mathys Erhard | 20c | 53.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Mathys Erhard | 31c | 48.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…e65abacked Mathys Erhard | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…2252backed Inaki Montes | 73c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Inaki Montes | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Inaki Montes | 75c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Inaki Montes | 46c | 22.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Inaki Montes | 73c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.