Europa Conference League · resolved market
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecc8a24111a5bc85cb72b0313c95876190fefb134c91a54808c4770b32210231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 49c | 4,578$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.52 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 53c | 1,319$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.22 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 18c | 1,219$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 1,037$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.06 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 843.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 698.55$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 51c | 665$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.35 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 51c | 638$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.62 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 638$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.62 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 637.09$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 586.07$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Over | 48c | 416.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 388.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 291.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 47c | 184.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Over | 53c | 114.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 47c | 103$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 13c | 79.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 45c | 64.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 79c | 60.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f00…5396backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Over | 52c | 46.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Over | 52c | 30.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 78c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 52c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 52c | 20.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: The New Saints FC (-1.5)FC Flora won
- Spread: The New Saints FC (-2.5)FC Flora won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 0.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 1.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 3.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 5.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to AdvanceFC Flora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.