Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: The New Saints FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb161dc5059d89b98b994444e03a23b3b4930b4297ea8c19fae0724db01ec087f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Floraof The New Saints FC, FC Flora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed The New Saints FC | 25c | 1,903$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.26 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed The New Saints FC | 13c | 1,676$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.52 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Flora | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed The New Saints FC | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed FC Flora | 71c | 222.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FC Flora | 72c | 186.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FC Flora | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FC Flora | 72c | 119.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Flora | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FC Flora | 71c | 95.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Flora | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked FC Flora | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed FC Flora | 71c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: The New Saints FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: The New Saints FC (-2.5)FC Flora won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 0.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 1.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 2.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 3.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 5.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to AdvanceFC Flora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.