Fifa International · resolved market
Will Romania beat Austria?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd38b7ad961d14974983f837d7712b55367aaf81875fcc60fc3195bee255a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 12c | 82,624$9,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,634.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c4…8992backed Yes | 17c | 2,522$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…f22ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,662$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…697bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…8699backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…f21abacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…fb35backed Yes | 10c | 829.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…a0bdbacked Yes | 2c | 650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…3a59backed Yes | 12c | 641.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…3038backed Yes | 17c | 572.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…36d9backed Yes | 12c | 560.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a7ecbacked Yes | 8c | 552.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…d2f5backed Yes | 12c | 446$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…f01abacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes | 11c | 351$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…2ea7backed Yes | 4c | 333.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…6353backed Yes | 11c | 314.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…e22bbacked Yes | 15c | 269.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 11c | 261.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…2619backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…4448backed Yes | 6c | 248.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…c13abacked Yes | 12c | 241.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b700backed Yes | 14c | 223.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked Yes | 18c | 217.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…21fbbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…c2f3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…e5afbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…9997backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472f…fd2dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…8edabacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…3f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 163.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…c3e4backed Yes | 12c | 158.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 13c | 152.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…31a0backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…59edbacked Yes | 11c | 148.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 9c | 147.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…e62dbacked Yes | 14c | 138.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…2d73backed Yes | 12c | 115.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…41babacked Yes | 12c | 102.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…e3bfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e11…30cbbacked Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Romania beat Austria?this page
- Will Austria beat Romania?Yes won
- Will Austria vs. Romania end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.