Earnings · resolved market
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd87eee7d6f7ce31343c78749a1c47f0898b42af790d901232461297887d847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f21…9faabacked No | 4c | 1,103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 43c | 958.13$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.82 | 353 | 36.5%129 W · 224 L | +21.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 45c | 593.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.17 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…8c8abacked No | 54c | 369.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 684 | 43%294 W · 390 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 54c | 163.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3d3ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 52c | 94.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 57c | 81.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 77.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 54c | 70.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 273 | 52%142 W · 131 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed Yes | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 53c | 53.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked No | 47c | 50.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 220 | 40.9%90 W · 130 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…f97abacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…2ea5backed No | 64c | 46.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 46.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…01e5backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 58c | 40.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 43c | 26.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +170.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…1c75backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 51c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.