Olympics · resolved market
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecfec35be50f204f4d7f387981dfc444c94fc9a3601556f027f39b9d80adafbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,100$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 50c | 291.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 44c | 209.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 60c | 191.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 62c | 143.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…8c93backed Yes | 49c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc027…eb78backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…eb06backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +103%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 42.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 39.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…fdcdbacked Yes | 56c | 36.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…2489backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…1ad9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Chiara Betti (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Gilli Kim (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Minjeong Choi (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mirei Nakashima (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.