Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed01b8b17abd2d33cca89721ba88138329ffd2b4938bba6df14e8308e469b2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 373.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 195.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 179.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 41c | 167.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 18c | 135.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 94.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 91.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 80.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 79.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 79c | 56.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 79c | 45.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 23.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 80c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 70c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.