Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed02b84956e5abe7cbfd66e10eb5a2f65c329fcfbe8b19a042ad9dad9b11586e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, All Gamers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 870.95$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.41 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed XLG Gaming | 28c | 565$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.8 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed All Gamers | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked All Gamers | 43c | 464.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked XLG Gaming | 35c | 325.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4a…3b84backed XLG Gaming | 23c | 260$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed All Gamers | 69c | 228.73$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed XLG Gaming | 30c | 183.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed All Gamers | 57c | 159$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed All Gamers | 69c | 105.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked XLG Gaming | 29c | 103.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed All Gamers | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed All Gamers | 71c | 98.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed All Gamers | 64c | 96.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed All Gamers | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed XLG Gaming | 26c | 67.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310f…36a8backed All Gamers | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked All Gamers | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed All Gamers | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group OmegaXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.