Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0fb31f9d9179e572e9a1458a9b94cf77198398c14ebbe5fcc8af21797cb52a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,533 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x773b…d4f1backed Yes | 12c | 978.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 33c | 406.8$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 272.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 259.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 26c | 258.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 226.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 173.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 37c | 156.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 144.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 30c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 120.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 113.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 108.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…7452backed Yes | 14c | 87.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 14c | 87.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…b22dbacked Yes | 15c | 77.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…146ebacked Yes | 15c | 74.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 74.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed No | 76c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 79c | 63.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…3d50backed Yes | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…e88cbacked Yes | 34c | 56.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 73c | 51.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 47.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 41.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 40.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 37.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 37.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…4b16backed No | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…daf9backed No | 74c | 28.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d7…be6dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…a2d4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.