TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,926 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2706…1f04backed Yes38c715.16$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+84.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ea…c587backed Yes39c580.39$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.571070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+54.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c514.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c423.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No55c407.19$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.75848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes21c323.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.411,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes34c305.1$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1660523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No67c230.75$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12412540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeec…a723backed No61c187.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.923452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No64c182.17$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c178$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No42c175.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.991,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No61c168.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.046755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c151$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.123,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdf…4056backed Yes62c142.85$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes38c141.72$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.198,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f60…3a69backed Yes40c132.96$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No79c131.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8411652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes44c122.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No37c119.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No61c119.27$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3227463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes61c108.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.952,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No63c105.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c103$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.333,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6733058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7874023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.261,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c95.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes51c88.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.344158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No58c85.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5714071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.694344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes38c79.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4325029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes34c75.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8215330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No35c74.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No25c71.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7434319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes44c66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3723231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes40c64.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8515911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed Yes39c64.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.078665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.122728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes35c59.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.181,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes20c59.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0218740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No62c57.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.451,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed No38c57.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.683946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes42c53.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.041,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a0…6539backed Yes40c53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dbe…f206backed No61c51.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…7ef8backed Yes39c51.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No45c50.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No51c49.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2310051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No62c48.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.939656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes46c43.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4910537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fc…e296backed Yes27c43.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+266.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.614,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8682…24e5backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.42759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes37c37.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4333839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No61c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No58c33.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.447764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No45c33.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No61c32.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdfc…41f6backed No78c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed No62c32.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe228…1e29backed No67c30.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.127530.7%23 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.781,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99f…aeb1backed No61c29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.693613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd28…24debacked No63c28.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3829…eb8abacked Yes41c28.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0574…e49fbacked No62c27.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb4…b31cbacked No63c27.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes51c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.196358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes42c26.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.194339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…2d64backed No66c25.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.992035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No61c24.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7413122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No62c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes63c21.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.071,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9160…1705backed Yes72c20.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.793844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No62c20.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.674757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x716d…42a7backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c18.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7598…97a6backed No76c18.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd6…9c2fbacked No60c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No67c17.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7131567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebfc…46e8backed No62c17.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.616459.4%38 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad8…20a8backed No59c16.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe466…1a58backed No65c15.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.092759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65a7…ab77backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.