Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb971438db12702005cc9617192a6dc18d4c6358ee0fa16a338f3af652016df7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2706…1f04backed Yes | 38c | 715.16$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed Yes | 39c | 580.39$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 514.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 423.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 55c | 407.19$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 323.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 305.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 230.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 61c | 187.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 182.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 175.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 61c | 168.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 151$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…4056backed Yes | 62c | 142.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 141.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…3a69backed Yes | 40c | 132.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 79c | 131.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 44c | 122.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 37c | 119.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 61c | 119.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 108.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 105.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 103$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 95.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 51c | 88.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 58c | 85.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 79.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 34c | 75.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 35c | 74.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 25c | 71.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 40c | 64.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 39c | 64.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 59.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 20c | 59.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 57.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 38c | 57.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 53.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 61c | 51.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…7ef8backed Yes | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 50.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 51c | 49.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…e296backed Yes | 27c | 43.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 58c | 33.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 45c | 33.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 61c | 32.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…41f6backed No | 78c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…24debacked No | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…eb8abacked Yes | 41c | 28.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 62c | 27.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…b31cbacked No | 63c | 27.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 66c | 25.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 62c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 18.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…97a6backed No | 76c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…9c2fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 67c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 62c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…20a8backed No | 59c | 16.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 65c | 15.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.