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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,239 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafb5…f583backed Yes1c1,928$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes37c546.45$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.461,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c2…7a17backed No62c454.99$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.634339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes10c399.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c362.94$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes27c296.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes40c295.64$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No69c290.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5254143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes37c288.42$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.65848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No61c280.28$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes47c231.77$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.710051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab87…5f77backed Yes51c226.63$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…db02backed Yes39c219.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.967233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda59…51c5backed Yes37c218.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.851020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No60c185.67$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c177.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba9e…58debacked No69c160.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.262634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeec…a723backed No57c154.73$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes28c151.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.721,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9115749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x955a…ff6abacked No75c146.4$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.934259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes42c145.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.681,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c124.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes47c113.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5312230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25ad…95eebacked No68c111.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.211872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c102.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes30c95.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes42c92.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8615330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed Yes37c86.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No57c85.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.818665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8512540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb287…961cbacked Yes38c80.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6514071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes19c79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0125029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No60c77.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.293,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c73.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.613,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c9f…7af2backed Yes43c69.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dbe…f206backed No58c68.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes32c66.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5923231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8c…7794backed No57c65.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc2a…342abacked Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes32c61.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5132818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes35c60.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4318740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c59.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.438,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a0…0548backed Yes41c56.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No71c56.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0611565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No62c55.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No65c54.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.236446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No70c54.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1625362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes38c53.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.094,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes29c50.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.229835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a0…6539backed No64c49.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x531e…a7b3backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8857…7ef8backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes39c46.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1624149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0574…e49fbacked Yes44c45.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes44c45.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes46c45.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c43.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.012,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes39c43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.861,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes38c39.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes38c39.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8711619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dfe…b4f9backed No30c39.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.366550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c38.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.393,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.349434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No66c37.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86ea…8e24backed Yes46c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes42c34.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No59c34.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.021,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x639f…bbb6backed No62c33.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No56c32.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.381,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99f…aeb1backed No58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.443613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes41c31.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.253030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.353,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.510371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes43c29.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.581,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8682…24e5backed Yes40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes38c27.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.653767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No65c27.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.546755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes40c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No57c26.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.098248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No61c25.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x481f…92f0backed Yes40c24.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x35be…567ebacked No50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes42c23.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.