Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5188485f5c0679e90005fcabba57b721a69b8f512508af37839bed356cfbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,239 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb5…f583backed Yes | 1c | 1,928$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 546.45$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.46 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 62c | 454.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 362.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 296.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 40c | 295.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 290.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 37c | 288.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 280.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 47c | 231.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 51c | 226.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 39c | 219.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 37c | 218.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 185.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 177.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 69c | 160.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 57c | 154.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 151.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked No | 75c | 146.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 145.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 124.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 47c | 113.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 68c | 111.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 102.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 95.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 42c | 92.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 37c | 86.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 57c | 85.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…961cbacked Yes | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 77.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 73.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…7af2backed Yes | 43c | 69.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 58c | 68.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 66.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 57c | 65.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…342abacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 32c | 61.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 35c | 60.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 59.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…0548backed Yes | 41c | 56.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 71c | 56.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 55.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 65c | 54.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 70c | 54.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 53.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed No | 64c | 49.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…7ef8backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 39c | 46.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 46c | 45.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 43.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 38c | 39.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 30c | 39.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 38.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 37.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8e24backed Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 34.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 34.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…bbb6backed No | 62c | 33.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 41c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 43c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 38c | 27.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 65c | 27.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…92f0backed Yes | 40c | 24.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…567ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 42c | 23.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.