Earnings · resolved market
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2268c034c08243833293268ef9629cc2237940ec7545efbf0a3e69307c8b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 20c | 1,080$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 44c | 683.56$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.02 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…a505backed Yes | 54c | 270$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…cfbabacked No | 46c | 270$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 232.6$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked Yes | 58c | 111.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 67.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 44c | 62.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…06e3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.