AI · resolved market
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2d18187d80e4a664f193430980311c4d23073e233c1546d9d19c1ac5d0fcc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 78c | 472.32$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 448.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 57c | 440.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.99 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 30c | 306.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 255.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…7b39backed Yes | 21c | 186.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 152.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 11c | 144.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…3074backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 78c | 102.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 13c | 96.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 86.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 65c | 62.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…6fc8backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…3ca5backed Yes | 35c | 28.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.