AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa806701a1604e90a7d4e07bd1e0d00cabd9d084ef8e1e194123df01b59829f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 41c | 688.09$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.86 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 7c | 399.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 311.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634c…6c17backed Yes | 5c | 298.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 9c | 283.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 46c | 243.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 217.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 178.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked No | 58c | 172.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…3074backed Yes | 48c | 131.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 50c | 129.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 122.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 37c | 94.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 77.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…4cb0backed No | 51c | 64.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…ab5abacked No | 71c | 53.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 36c | 51.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…7b39backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 40c | 38.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 50c | 34.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…83f0backed No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…e2a4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…6a69backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
- Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.