Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-02-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4e435a36e61f94230c95e097c265e2374086571ab67d355014aee4c391dbf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 15,126$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.62 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 8c | 9,632$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.98 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.98 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 56c | 5,881$3,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.84 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 55c | 3,490$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.87 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 2,831$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 2,629$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.52 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 1c | 1,683$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 59c | 968$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.92 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 58c | 962.21$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.21 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 29c | 885.64$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.58 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 674.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 55c | 667.27$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.27 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 50c | 605$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 56c | 574.16$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.63 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 24c | 450.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed No | 44c | 385.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 5c | 385$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 43c | 371$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 54c | 330$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…106bbacked Yes | 40c | 310$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 304.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 54c | 298$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 272.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 55c | 249.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Yes | 55c | 229.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…b2f4backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 66c | 190.6$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 56c | 180.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…f282backed Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 44c | 149.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…0d10backed Yes | 55c | 139.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…8a0fbacked Yes | 55c | 138.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 50c | 108.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 54c | 92.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 55c | 92.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 55c | 74.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed No | 46c | 66.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Yes | 44c | 56.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked No | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…b0a5backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a6…1961backed No | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 56c | 43.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…6583backed Yes | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…16d6backed Yes | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked No | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 57c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-02-27?this page
- Will Konyaspor win on 2026-02-27?No won
- Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Konyaspor end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.