NFL · resolved market
ATL vs. NO: Will there be 42 or more combined points scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5a0819722c7647473ba49e593abd77abda264809b5f4b98721d57de8bcbc15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Over | 51c | 2,279$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.17 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Under | 48c | 694.42$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.32 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Over | 50c | 264.78$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…8c5ebacked Under | 52c | 99.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c59…121dbacked Under | 52c | 99.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…837dbacked Under | 51c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…b5ecbacked Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a5…cf1fbacked Over | 49c | 98.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6002…8a21backed Over | 49c | 98.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Over | 50c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…d654backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ATL vs. NO: Will there be 42 or more combined points scored?this page
- ARI vs. WAS: Will there be 50 or more combined points scored?Over won
- BAL vs. BUF: Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?Under won
- CAR vs. CIN: Will there be 48 or more combined points scored?Over won
- GB vs. MIN: Will there be 44 or more combined points scored?Over won
- IND vs. PIT: Will there be 41 or more combined points scored?Over won
- KC vs. LAC: Will there be 40 or more combined points scored?Under won
- NYJ vs. DEN: Will there be 40 or more combined points scored?Under won
- SF vs. NE: Will there be 41 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.