NFL · resolved market
BAL vs. BUF: Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1408465400ce82229023cf99cbb8909c3effd06a4fd9985b59cc18725b9eaf92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 50c | 2,278$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.34 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Over | 55c | 301.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…2035backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BAL vs. BUF: Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?this page
- ARI vs. WAS: Will there be 50 or more combined points scored?Over won
- ATL vs. NO: Will there be 42 or more combined points scored?Over won
- CAR vs. CIN: Will there be 48 or more combined points scored?Over won
- GB vs. MIN: Will there be 44 or more combined points scored?Over won
- IND vs. PIT: Will there be 41 or more combined points scored?Over won
- KC vs. LAC: Will there be 40 or more combined points scored?Under won
- NYJ vs. DEN: Will there be 40 or more combined points scored?Under won
- SF vs. NE: Will there be 41 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.