Movies · resolved market
Will Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed7156c7b026f6ece4f67d02b77e30abf2122e21180bf0bc3a50977022212213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e62…7c33backed No | 5c | 5,860$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 8c | 699.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 6c | 418.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d2…a7bcbacked No | 79c | 205$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 160.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 139.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…32a7backed No | 49c | 101.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 17c | 84.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal (Hamnet) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.