Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed7b74b90ec2a3674b5d4f42684ea3dd3b9f747f74071aa34fa0b295ce05d4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 3,465$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.44 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 2,484$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.39 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 1,331$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.43 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 679.83$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.51 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 590.71$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 348.19$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 306.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Michigan Wolverines | 73c | 210.41$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 184.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 161.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 151.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 97.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…9706backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 24.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 19.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State BuckeyesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes: O/U 159.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.