Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mary Stoiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9d4cdf2b280cbae38b8a8d89aa68809d18ab0168434c3c4afd19338f471db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mary Stoianaof Harmony Tan, Mary Stoiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Harmony Tan | 5c | 4,507$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Harmony Tan | 5c | 3,680$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…ecb8backed Mary Stoiana | 77c | 1,823$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Harmony Tan | 23c | 1,624$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.07 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Harmony Tan | 11c | 1,385$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Harmony Tan | 20c | 805.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Harmony Tan | 25c | 757.14$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Harmony Tan | 25c | 609$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Harmony Tan | 29c | 528.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 479 | 56.6%271 W · 208 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 485.76$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Harmony Tan | 24c | 466.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Harmony Tan | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Harmony Tan | 16c | 239.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Harmony Tan | 25c | 229.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Harmony Tan | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mary Stoiana | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 192.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mary Stoiana | 74c | 180.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Harmony Tan | 25c | 177.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Harmony Tan | 9c | 173.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 220 | 35.9%79 W · 141 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Harmony Tan | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Mary Stoiana | 74c | 113.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mary Stoiana | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Harmony Tan | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Harmony Tan | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Harmony Tan | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Harmony Tan | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Harmony Tan | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…f108backed Mary Stoiana | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 527 | 39.3%207 W · 320 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Mary Stoiana | 76c | 43.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 186 | 66.7%124 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mary Stoiana | 80c | 28.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Mary Stoiana | 75c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Mary Stoiana | 74c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…f821backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Mary Stoiana | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 190 | 64.7%123 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Mary Stoiana | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.