Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedb27df0266b10bcd3d43f6a61fc1660f46f8c1078370bf4c18ba30908faccb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $579,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $578,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 565,620$299,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299,516.39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Under | 46c | 412,000$191,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220,480 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 50c | 49,993$24,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,996.56 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,800 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 36,000$17,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,970 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 20,961$10,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,722.72 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 47c | 5,500$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,780$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,151$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.12 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed Under | 49c | 953.27$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 250.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 49c | 213.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 132.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Under | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 75.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 52c | 43.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 47c | 31.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…f859backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…db44backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 50c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5this page
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin LumberjacksStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.