Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4342c5963c9239a82cddbc5da0bde9b2c15c4cf8ce51fe98deca904d83b555d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksof Incarnate Word Cardinals, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 9c | 2,832$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.27 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 22c | 2,300$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 26c | 1,525$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.06 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 22c | 1,505$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.15 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 75c | 912.16$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 78c | 909.06$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 2c | 650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 22c | 622.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 80c | 394.3$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 26c | 392.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 77c | 378.92$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 24c | 373.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 7c | 365.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 7c | 314.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 76c | 302$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 80c | 107.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…9160backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 23c | 85.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 78c | 76.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 24c | 75.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 78c | 68.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…9d73backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 79c | 60.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 74c | 55.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 79c | 50.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 49 | 87.8%43 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…f4f7backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 76c | 34.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…dcedbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksthis page
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.