Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd08d8b38097bb90b4afd670fb453907486ee47f54e15c2f9f6f01b4e87086f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 2,307$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.94 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 42c | 2,128$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,481$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.61 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 20c | 1,182$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…8302backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 865.18$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.04 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 68c | 463.27$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 350.55$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 14c | 307.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 131.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 70c | 78.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 78.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.