Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db916c1e90b4496ab1aa53eaa30dc84d17c9ec8ab7c7c9f1f25338465840fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 62c | 25,027$15,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,510.21 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 38c | 25,000$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 13c | 5,764$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 1,249$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 61c | 492.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 28c | 465.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 35c | 414.49$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 63c | 225$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 10c | 199.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…5a2fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 38c | 156$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Yes | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 42c | 117.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 65c | 106.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 39c | 102.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 40c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 39c | 92.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 38c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 35c | 84.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 62c | 73.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…32c3backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 61c | 47.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 62c | 38.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 69cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 65c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 67c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.