Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0797077d4e3bf71d8924cb1efcb374026f69c5c40d8fa04791a80d68b813e497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 2,332$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 13c | 1,627$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.65 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 67c | 1,561$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.82 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 1,209$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 883.32$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.17 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 847.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 28c | 810.51$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.79 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 65c | 398.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 55c | 333$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 41c | 236.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 77c | 190.8$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 69c | 177.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 30c | 157.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 47c | 123$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421f…2df0backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 72c | 94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 90.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 74c | 79.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 29c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…1085backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…abc3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 50c | 49.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 54c | 38.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…844cbacked Yes | 46c | 36.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4851backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…3c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 30.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Yes | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed No | 69c | 26.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 61c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will FC Arouca vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.