Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede0ff358842764615f26128d406250003fcee9a7910d0ec7090f34705ad0152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,548 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x639f…bbb6backed No | 0c | 6,282$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 872.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 15c | 765.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…f3d3backed No | 3c | 405$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 80c | 384.63$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 374.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 354.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 329.61$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 312.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 36c | 280.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 9c | 256.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes | 64c | 235.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 72c | 222.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 12c | 220.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 210.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 160.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 70c | 160$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Yes | 70c | 143.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…4397backed Yes | 69c | 132.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 11c | 132.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 30c | 126.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 16c | 125.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 72c | 122.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 35c | 114.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 31c | 114.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…dec6backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 64c | 93.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 64c | 85.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 40c | 83.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 33c | 76.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 31c | 71.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 75c | 69.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 77c | 65.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 64c | 65.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed Yes | 71c | 56.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked Yes | 61c | 49.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 37c | 45.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked No | 35c | 43.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…4847backed Yes | 71c | 42.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 67c | 42.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…a3d5backed No | 40c | 40.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 34c | 38.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 28c | 38.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 69c | 36.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 46c | 31.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 67c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 56c | 25.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…58febacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 78c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7107…de5bbacked No | 46c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed Yes | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 68c | 20.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…ce9abacked Yes | 79c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed Yes | 78c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked Yes | 66c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 74c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…aa26backed Yes | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.