Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf93e15bf11ca0284deab896b696bb0bf1892dbdaec97e196ebc87a30e64f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Yes | 76c | 548.41$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 402.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 58c | 187.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 180.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 150.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 48c | 124.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 108.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 74c | 107.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 106.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 101.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 87.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 45c | 87.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 83.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 82.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 63c | 79.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 75.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 66.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 62.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 63c | 43.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 62c | 43.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 41.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 39.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 52c | 37.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 57c | 36.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 30.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 30.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 69c | 29.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 28.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 50c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 55c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 63c | 21.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 61c | 20.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 16.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 68c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.