Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee14634e54206ec30bc138abf91e54bbc257a67bc60646f00c7a59f702ab2ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 7,190$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,871.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.92 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 43c | 1,664$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.02 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 23c | 880.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 21c | 583.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Yes | 53c | 462.26$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 17c | 442.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 55c | 397.19$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 13c | 311.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 56c | 269.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.34 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 64c | 236.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed No | 47c | 156.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked No | 24c | 139.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 48c | 123$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 54c | 92.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 46c | 87.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 44c | 74.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 47c | 59.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…7152backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…2171backed Yes | 54c | 46.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed No | 47c | 38.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 54c | 35.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…b8b6backed No | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 48c | 21.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-05?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.