MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee55fce74d13c52f5e124324830659a70233284b51c4d7716a8d785bf3ab2dab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 6,662$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.31 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 48c | 3,311$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.89 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 48c | 3,076$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.52 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 47c | 1,765$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.71 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 53c | 1,490$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.7 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 995.96$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 782.52$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 596$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.88 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 403$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 359.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 307.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 162$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 109.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 87.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 76.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 48c | 74.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 58.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 45.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 52c | 34.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 34.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 49c | 32.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 53c | 26.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 16.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.