Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8c954062f0bc2e8da98a3f5908ba204ec15bf0ba8af2b27f6bff672053bd78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 419.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 385.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 313.97$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 306.19$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 229.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 215.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 205.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 19c | 105.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 25c | 102.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 100.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 24c | 85.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 26c | 78.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 72.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 17c | 67.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 66.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 65.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 18c | 64.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 24c | 62.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 25c | 60.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 23c | 57.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…0450backed Yes | 25c | 55.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed Yes | 23c | 46.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 33.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 76c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed No | 76c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 76c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.